Why we can't see the NIE

WSJ Report on the NIE:

Classified Iraq Report
Assailed by Democrats
By SIOBHAN GORMAN
April 4, 2008

WASHINGTON -- A new classified intelligence assessment about Iraq says conditions have improved on the ground since the last report, according to officials familiar with the document, and it has renewed a debate on Capitol Hill about the politicization of such analysis.

The report says little more than what hs already available in newspapers, the officials say, prompting criticism from some Democrats that it appears to be designed largely to bolster the administration's Iraq policy ahead of Congressional testimony next week from Gen. David Petraeus, the top U.S. military official in Iraq.

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• What's New: An intelligence report gives a more positive portrayal of the situation in Iraq than have previous reports.
• The Background: The assessment precedes congressional testimony next week about conditions there.
• What's Next: Some Democrats say the report's analysis is shoddy and that it appears to be designed largely to bolster the administration's Iraq policy ahead of the hearing.
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The report has been released to a limited number of lawmakers. Reflecting the consensus of all 16 intelligence agencies, the report is an update to an earlier National Intelligence Estimate on Iraq. Such estimates are the most weighty intelligence analysis the government produces. The update was overseen by Director of National Intelligence Mike McConnell.

The purpose of the report, Mr. McConnell has said, was to assess Iraq's "political, economic, and security trends." It was requested by Sen. John Warner (R., Va.) and delivered to Congress on Tuesday.
[David Petraeus]

While officials wouldn't describe details, they described the report broadly as supporting the surge strategy advocated by Gen. Petraeus. They said it focuses on improvements in security on the ground and in the Iraqi government.

"It's much less insightful than other, recent products and focuses narrowly on counterterrorism efforts in Iraq and the progress of the Iraqi leadership," said Rep. Jane Harman, a California Democrat who chairs to Homeland Security intelligence subcommittee.

A senior administration official said the report reflects the realities on the ground.

"The NIE update confirmed that the surge strategy the president announced in January of last year is working," one senior administration official said. "There's more work to be done, but progress has obviously been made."

Several Democratic officials said the report was notable for what it did not cover. It did not delve into questions of how developments in Iraq would be affected by changes in the region. Earlier reports assessed the potential impact of changes, such as a decision to pull out U.S. troops.

"One might ask whether the timing of the release and the apparent departure from usual procedures means this is more of a political document than an intelligence document," said Rep. Rush Holt, a Democrat from New Jersey who is a member of the House Intelligence Committee. He declined to say how the procedures were unusual.
[Michael McConnell]

Intelligence reports are often delayed by major developments that could affect the assessments. This report was not delayed to include the recent fighting between Iraqi-government forces and the Shiite militia of Moqtada al-Sadr.

Several senior Republican lawmakers said they wouldn't comment because the report is classified.

A report issued in August concluded that there had been "measurable but uneven improvements" in security in Iraq but that the level of violence remained high and the Iraq government remained "unable to govern effectively" and its status would become "more precarious" in the coming months.

Mr. McConnell has said he has no plans to declassify a summary of the report. His spokesman Ross Feinstein declined to comment.

A summary of the August report was released publicly in October, after which Mr. McConnell issued a policy that such declassified summaries would no longer be provided. He quickly broke with that policy and issued a declassified summary of a report on Iran in December, which reversed the long-standing U.S. position that Iran was actively seeking to develop a nuclear-weapons program.

Rep. Harman said that because much of the information in the latest report is "already in the public domain," she wants as much of the report as possible to be made public soon, allowing time for public discussion before Gen. Petraeus gives his report.

Democratic Sens. Edward Kennedy of Massachusetts and Carl Levin of Michigan wrote to Mr. McConnell on Wednesday to ask him to declassify the summary of the report. "There is no compelling reason not to release an unclassified version of this latest" report, they wrote. "This information is critical to the public debate in the coming weeks and months."